Three possible scenarios for economic development

25.08.2020

Kazakhstan's likely GDP growth is 4.0%. The inflation forecast for 2020 has been revised to 8-8.5%. This became known during the meeting of the Government.

"Depending on external and internal conditions, three possible scenarios for development of the economy of Kazakhstan for 2021-2025 have been developed. These are basic, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios. The average annual GDP growth in the basic scenario will be 4.0%, 4.5% - in the optimistic scenario and 3.0% - in the pessimistic scenario. Taking into account the conservative approach, it is proposed to use the basic scenario as the basis for budget planning", said Ruslan Dalenov, the Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan 

According to the report of Yerbolat Dossayev, the Chairman of the National Bank: "Against the background of weak domestic demand, which will have a disinflationary effect, the inflation forecast for 2020 has been revised from 9-11% at the first stage of the socio-economic development forecast to 8-8.5%. Inflation will also be affected by a shift in the exchange rate to prices against the backdrop of an expected balance of payment deficit, as well as increased fiscal boost, which will continue to affect inflation in 2021."

The forecast of socio-economic development in terms of monetary policy indicators was updated taking into account updated macroeconomic data.



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