Migration processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan

11.03.2021

On March 10, 2021, the VI International Scientific and Practical online Conference was held on the topic: "Current issues of Economic Sciences". The event, aimed at discussing current problems of economic development in the framework of solving problems in the real and financial sectors, accounting and auditing, management, marketing, as well as social development and information technologies, wa.organized by Kazakh University of Economics, Finance and International Trade.

The scientific conference was attended by experts of the Center for Regional Studies of the  Economic Research Institute JSC Aitzhan Meyrembayev and Dina Bektleyeva with a report on "Migration processes in the regions of Kazakhstan in the context of a pandemic".

Economists of the IEI conducted an analysis of the migration behavior of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of quarantine measures. According to the study, migration trends continue in Kazakhstan, while the intensity of previously established processes (outflow or inflow) has changed compared to the same period in 2019.

Name of the region

2019

January-June

2020

January-June

Growth rate, % 

 Type of migration

West Kazakhstan region

-202

-742

367

Outflow is growing

Akmola region

-783

-1 886

241

Pavlodar region

-419

-606

145

Kostanay region

-725

-1 010

139

North Kazakhstan region

-937

-1 076

115

East Kazakhstan region

-3 106

-3 539

114

Kyzylorda region

-1 911

-1 946

102

Turkestan region

-5 972

-5 417

91

Outflow decreased

Zhambyl region

-5 208

-4 461

86

Almaty region

-8 577

-6 535

76

Karaganda region

-2 881

-2 031

70

Atyrau region

-717

-443

62

Mangistau region

556

299

54

Aktobe region

-582

-44

8

Nur-Sultan

14 104

10 913

77

Inflow decreased

Shymkent

3 710

2 142

58

Almaty

13 650

16 382

120

Inflow is growing


From the table provided by experts, it can be seen that the outflow of population persists in all regions, but in 2020 there was an increase in outflow in 7 regions: West Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, and Kyzylorda regions. In other regions, the outflow of population decreased. In the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent, the inflow of population decreased, and in the city of Almaty it increased.

The report notes that in 2020, compared to 2019, there was a decrease in the outflow of population from cities and an increase in the outflow from rural areas in Akmola, Zhambyl, Karaganda, and Kyzylorda regions. 
  • In Akmola, Zhambyl, Karaganda,Kyzylorda, Almaty and Atyrau regions, there is a decrease in the outflow of population from the city.
  • In the North Kazakhstan, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Turkestan, East Kazakhstan regions and in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent, there is a decrease in the inflow to the city.
  • In Mangystau, Pavlodar, there was an inflow of population to the cities, and in the city of Almaty, it increased.

In addition, the study examines the relationship between socio-economic factors and interregional mobility of the population.

Name of the region

Type of migration

GRP, %

Average monthly nominal salary, %

Unemployment rate, %

The ratio of supply and demand in the labor market, %

Commissioning of

housing, %

Per Capita nominal income, %

The share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum, %

Infant mortality, %

West Kazakhstan region

Outflow is growing

102.1

102,5

0,1

141,0

102,3

93,9

-0,6

347,0

Pavlodar region

108,0

112,3

0,0

130,4

121,5

97,5

-0,8

133,0

Kostanay region

125,0

112,4

0,2

147,0

110,5

96,5

0,5

114,3

North Kazakhstan region

114,3

118,4

0,2

91,1

117,1

98,1

0,5

123,8

Akmola region

114,8

117,1

0,1

53,7

103,5

94,6

0,0

111,4

East Kazakhstan region

114,2

115,0

0,1

152,8

106,1

98,5

-0,4

68,2

Kyzylorda region

100,7

119,6

0,1

345,6

100,7

102,6

-0,4

104,2

 

Zhambyl region

Outflow decreased

115,3

128,8

0,0

121,5

110,4

103,3

-0,2

63,5

Karaganda region

123,3

116,7

0,0

165,6

111,9

98,5

0,3

128,1

Aktobe region

102,2

112,1

0,1

105,2

111,3

94,0

0,2

55,7

Turkestan region

115,7

136,9

0,0

134,7

82,5

102,7

-0,2

94,7

Mangistau region

98,6

109,9

0,4

127,0

98,3

106,3

1,1

102,0

Almaty region

114,7

126,6

0,1

85,1

130,0

96,6

0,1

95,6

Atyrau region

105,7

119,5

0,1

73,7

55,1

100,9

-1,0

57,4

 

Nur-Sultan

Inflow decreased

121,6

96,6

0,1

94,3

127,4

92,3

0,6

69,2

Shymkent

94,1

118,5

0,1

376,9

119,5

92,1

0,0

116,7

Almaty

Inflow is growing

102,5

105,5

0,1

172,1

97,0

100,4

-1,0

76,8

Note:

                – the growth rate is better than the national average;

               – the growth rate is characterized positively, but the value lags behind the national average;


The results of the correlation and regression analysis of the indicators of socio-economic development of the regions and the indicators of migration activity of the population allowed us to draw the following conclusion: internal migration of the population in the regions has a noticeable (ranging from 0.5 to 0.7) direct relationship with the indicators of housing commissioning-0.682, the average per capita nominal monetary income of the population-0.545, and a noticeable inverse relationship with the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum – -0.503.

According to the data obtained, most of the migration was caused by factors not taken into account in the regression analysis and various random causes.

In general, it can be concluded that the rate of internal migration is somewhat influenced by income, housing and employment opportunities. But the results of the correlation and regression analysis indicate the existence of other motives, for example: the desire to get an education, especially at the youngest working age; family reasons-from marriage or family breakup to moving as part of the family (children, unemployed members of the household). After the end of active work, the motives for moving may be a return to the previous place of residence, a desire to live in the best natural climatic conditions, etc.

To increase the impact of government measures in the regions, it is necessary to use a systematic approach to the study of factors of migration processes, and it is also necessary to develop point-based tools for regulating migration processes for each region.






 


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Saved: 20.04.2024






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